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2009 NBA Finals Predictions
By MATT ROCHINSKI
bobcats.com
June 4, 2009
First Round Predictions | Second Round Predictions | Conference Finals Predictions
It's time for the 2009 NBA Finals and that means it's time for Steve Martin, the fans and I to make our final predictions. A quick look at the standings shows that both Steve and I are an impressive 12-2 in our series predictions at this point. We both went 1-1 in the Conference Finals, with me correctly taking the Lakers to advance and Steve going with the Magic. That means the finals will decide who comes out on top this season since we've both got different champions predicted.
As for the fans? Former bobcats.com fan blogger Gaither Jones improved the fans record to 8-4 heading into the Conference Finals, but he went 0-2 with his selections of Cleveland and Denver to move on. We'll see what he's got this round, and we'd still like to hear from the rest of the fans to see who they think will be walking away with the championship.
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LOS ANGELES LAKERS (1) vs ORLANDO MAGIC (3)
MARTIN: The answer to who wins this series does not lie within what the teams did during the regular season. And in this case, the Orlando team that beat the Lakers twice was a much different team with Jameer Nelson at the helm of the Magic offense. Now, there’s a trap waiting for those Magic fans who eye his earlier than expected return in the NBA Finals against the Lakers. The playoff chemistry the Magic have developed has occurred with Nelson in street clothes. Let’s set that factor aside, except to recognize that any appearance by Nelson after a four-month absence would be something out of the desperate department. Let’s also not assume that the Lakers are a similar challenge for the Magic as the Cleveland Cavaliers. Sure, Kobe Bryant is responsible for a disproportionate amount of the Lakers offense. But, remember, they were able to dispose of the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals because other Lakers stepped up to help-namely Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza. The Lakers also bring post up threats in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum that simply don’t exist with the Cavaliers. I think Cleveland would have won Game 4 if Anderson Varejao doesn’t foul out. But this is a series that the Magic can win under the following scenarios:
1. Kobe can have his shots, as long as a majority of them take place outside the lane.
2. Dwight Howard needs to stay foul free as much as possible. Gortat is a decent replacement, but only in short spurts.
3. Courtney Lee and Michael Pietrus have to make sure that No. 1 happens as they will likely be personally responsible.
4. The Magic must limit Pau Gasol’s touches (Kobe will help here, especially if takes 30 or more shots to satisfy Magic goal No. 1.
5. The Magic hit 40% of their threes.
Yes Magic fans, this is attainable. You’re going up against Phil Jackson, who’s coached three of the NBA’s top five best ever players. How come this guy has only won nine NBA Titles? Red’s record lives on.
PREDICTION: Magic in six.
ROCHINSKI: Alright, I admit it - I made a mistake. For the first time in these playoffs, I went against my gut and picked Cleveland and LeBron to advance even though I believed the Magic had the better team on paper. I bought into the King James hype and thought the Nike commercial puppets had a good thing going, so I changed my pick. Bad idea. However, picking the Lakers to get past the Nuggets proved to be a good idea. So let's stick with that. Kobe enters this series looking for his fourth ring - and more importantly his first without Shaq. He had this chance last year against the Celtics and couldn't lead the Los Angeles to the title. Since that time, it's pretty obvious that he's had one goal in mind - to get back to the finals and bring home the hardware. It's going to happen here. Why? I think it is all going to come down to Game 1 again. The Lakers have been here before. Heck, I just mentioned they were here last year. The Magic - not so much. Orlando has been riding a surge of adrenaline throughout the playoffs, but I don't think the Magic will be ready for the pressure that's going to come with opening up an NBA Finals series in Los Angeles with the whole world watching. That's not to say I don't think they can recover and make a series of this if they can't hang with the Lakers in Game 1, but it's going to be that much more difficult if they can't come away with an opening win and let the Lakers set the tone for the series. Remember, Phil Jackson is now 43-0 in playoff series after winning Game 1, so Orlando has to find a way to take that one and put Los Angeles back on its heels. I don't believe that's going to happen though, and suddenly the Magic are going to realize that Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza match up with Orlando's lineup a lot better than LeBron James and some other guys wearing Cavs uniforms. My gut is screaming to take the Lakers, so I'm going to do just that. Here's to hoping they're not down 0-1 after tonight's game.
PREDICTION: Lakers in six.
FAN ANALYSIS (Jones): The Conference Finals were pretty rough for me. Denver reverted back to old habits and would most likely have lasted longer in the series or won it if key in-bound passes had not been botched. Orlando beating Cleveland does not surprise me as much. I had a great deal of difficulty picking the series. The Magic were definitely talented enough to win – especially if they were hitting their threes – but if I was not going to pick Orlando in six then I was going to go with the Cavaliers in seven. I did not think that Lebron and company would lose a game seven on their home court. I obviously went with the latter prediction and so I would like to finish the playoffs with a correct pick. I picked Boston last year over the Lakers, but I’m not sure if I can pick against them again. Los Angeles certainly has more playoff experience – a few players have rings so those guys know what it takes to win – and the majority of the team went to the NBA Finals last year. You can’t underestimate how much losing the championship last year will drive a sense of focus and desire to win it this year, especially when it comes to Kobe. Unlike Cleveland, the Lakers have the size to matchup with Orlando inside and on the perimeter. The question remains whether Los Angeles is tough enough. For a team with so much height, they do not rebound well and I would describe all of their bigs as finesse players – not tough players. As long as Dwight Howard asserts himself and avoids foul trouble, he can dominate these guys. His task will be easier said than done. The guys in purple and gold have a larger rotation of bigs to use, and Howard can be inconsistent. He is not a dominant player yet because while he can dominate he does not always do it, and he misses too many free throws. If Howard is able to get going, then it will be more tempting for the Lakers to cheat off of their defensive perimeter assignments, which favors Orlando with their superb 3-point shooters. The Magic did defeat the Lakers (by a small margin) twice in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different monster and Los Angeles is the most talented team the Magic will have faced in the postseason. In addition, perhaps the biggest reason for beating the Lakers earlier in the year was Jameer Nelson. Even if he plays in the series, it is hard to expect too much from him as he has not played for months and was thought to be done for the year. On the other end, the Lakers have been so inconsistent that it is often unclear if they will pounce on their opponent or get blown out. One thing is for certain, the Magic and Lakers have proven that they can win on the road. That factor matters in the Finals because the games follow a 2-3-2 format. If the Magic can not take one of the first two games then they will be forced to win the championship on the road. And despite being a good road team, winning an elimination game on the opponent’s court is even tougher. I am searching for a good reason to pick Orlando to win its first set of rings, but I can not find one strong enough. Los Angeles has more experience and enough talent to beat the Magic in the series even if Orlando is playing well.
PREDICTION: Lakers in seven.
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