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By MATT ROCHINSKI
bobcats.com
May 4, 2009
First Round Predictions | Conference Finals Predictions
With an action-packed first round of the playoffs finally having come to a close in Atlanta last night, it's time for Steve Martin, the fans and I to make their second round predictions. But before we do that, let's take a look at where we stand after Round 1. Both Steve and I are tied after the opening round with records of 7-1 overall. I missed the Rockets taking out the Trail Blazers and Steve failed to take the Mavs over the Spurs. However, I'm giving myself the nod here considering I hit the number of games on the Cavaliers, Celtics, Magic, Hawks, Lakers and Mavericks opening-series wins. Steve nailed the Celtics and the Rockets and was closest on the Nuggets (his six games to my seven). So we'll call it 6-3 on the tiebreak for now.
As for the fans? Well, you guys struggled a little bit, finishing with a 4-4 push. You got it right on the Cavs, Celtics, Hawks and Lakers, but that was it. Considering the timing of the start of the second round yesterday, we'd still like you send us your second round predictions below, but have gone to Bobcats super fan and former bobcats.com fan blogger Gaither Jones to provide us a fan voice. Keep sending in your picks and we'll post the best ones.
Surprisingly, neither Steve, Gaither or myself differed on any picks in Round 2, although I desperately wanted to pick a certain upset that you will see below but just couldn't bring myself to do it. Last year I took too many of the opposite of Steve's picks hoping to get a jump on him and it failed miserably. So regardless of what he or the fans think, I'm continuing to trust my gut this round.
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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (1) vs ATLANTA HAWKS (4)
MARTIN: It’s another notch on the old belt for the Cavs and LeBron James. The Cavaliers went 3-1 against the Hawks in the regular season. Their only loss came in Atlanta’s huge seven-game home win streak in late February and early March when they were on that “Mine That Bird” stretch that locked up home court advantage in the first round. But this is the conference semifinals, and despite the fact that Joe Johnson is heating up at the right time, keep in mind whose crusade you are in the middle of.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in five.
ROCHINSKI: Has there ever been a more non-exciting, seven-game playoff series than what the Hawks just went through with Miami? All seven games decided by 10-or-more points and no team that ever held a lead at the end of a first quarter lost the lead? That's crazy. I know LeBron and the Cavs swept through my hometown Pistons impressively, but I think Joe Johnson and Josh Smith give the Hawks the ability to steal two games in this series. If Atlanta was any more than seven players deep right now with Marvin Williams out and Al Horford wasn't hurting, then I might even give this young Hawks squad a chance to take the series. But that shouldn't happen.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in six.
FAN ANALYSIS (Jones): LeBron is on a mission. His team went 39-2 at home in the regular season and they would have been 40-1 if all of their key players had not rested in the season finale 111-110 overtime loss to Philadelphia. They are now 41-2 and look to improve that record against a young, athletic Atlanta team. Cleveland has more postseason experience, is a superior defensive team, and the up-tempo style the Hawks like to play will only help LeBron to get easier buckets in transition.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in five.
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MARTIN: Both teams slugged it out in tough first round series. Kevin Garnett’s availability (if any) will be a big key. Orlando has a better front line with Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, they have the appearance of some depth by rolling Mickael Pietrus off the bench, and they are the best 3-point shooting team in the league. Roll in the fact that they are one of the better road teams in the NBA, and I like the Magic to steal one of the first 2 in Boston.
PREDICTION: Magic in six.
ROCHINSKI: The most impressive thing in the Magic and Sixers series to me in Round 1 was what Orlando did without Dwight Howard. They went into Philadelphia and trounced the Sixers 114-89 on their home court behind 29 points from Rashard Lewis and 21 from Rafer Alston. With that kind of balance and Howard back on the court, the defending champs will have their hands full against Orlando. Yes, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen did their thing against the Bulls, hitting big shot after big shot in one of the most entertaining NBA series ever, but how much will the Celtics have left? My guess is enough for about six games before they fizzle out and a new champ will be crowned.
PREDICTION: Magic in six.
FAN ANALYSIS (Jones): I picked the Bulls in seven in the first round, and I’m picking against Boston again. Without KG, the Celtics don’t have anyone to match up inside with Dwight Howard and have enough shooters to pull defenders away from the paint. He could put up some scary numbers if he asserts himself inside against Boston.
PREDICTION: Magic in six.
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LOS ANGELES LAKERS (1) vs HOUSTON ROCKETS (5)
MARTIN: If we weren’t talking about a second-year point guard (Aaron Brooks) for the Rockets, I might have enough nerve to pick the Rockets in a huge upset. But the Lakers have way too many people they can rely on to score. And having to rely on Luis Scola to make me look like a genius is a big stretch. Chrysler is on more solid ground. Kobe, Pau and the boys in purple and gold rock on.
PREDICTION: Lakers in five.
ROCHINSKI: I wish I could explain how badly I wanted to pick the Rockets to win this series, because something tells me Yao Ming is ready to step up and dominate an opponent in a series Houston isn't supposed to win. I went back and forth on this one for a while and thought I was crazy to even be contemplating choosing the Rockets. That was until Steve told me he was thinking about doing the same thing. How close was I to saying "Houston in six?" I had it written all the way up to "six' but backed out when I realized Houston was 0-4 against the Lakers this season and that no player in the league has as much success against Ron Artest than Kobe Bryant, who averages 27.6 points against the Rockets lockdown defender. Watch what Yao does though, because Houston is 30-2 in games he scored 21 or more this season. But the Lakers just have too much firepower, especially if they win Game 1. Phil Jackson is 42-0 in series where his team wins the first game.
PREDICTION: Regrettably - Lakers in seven.
FAN ANALYSIS (Jones): I look forward to Ron Artest versus Kobe, as well as Yao banging inside against the Lakers big men. Houston is a more physical team, but I’m not sure if they have the firepower and enough options to beat the Lakers in a seven-game series. In addition, Yao can’t get up and down the court like the Lakers’ big men can, which plays to Los Angeles’ advantage. The Rockets have played well without Tracy McGrady, but they’ll miss his scoring ability in this series.
PREDICTION: Lakers in six.
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MARTIN: Yeah, this is a cheap pick because it’s made after Game 1, but this will be an entertaining series. You have two great small forwards in Josh Howard and Carmelo Anthony who can carry their teams. But when the pressure is on, I like Chauncey Billups and the Nuggets, especially when you consider the way the Nuggets are playing defense and the strength of their bench. But the Mavs are good enough to win twice and that’s it.
PREDICTION: Nuggets in six.
ROCHINSKI: As Steve said, Game 1 is in the books, but we couldn't make our second round picks on here until the first round was done, so blame our tardiness on the Hawks and Heat. How bad do I want the Nuggets to advance here? very bad, because I think they are the one team in the Western Conference that can knock out the Lakers. But to do so, they have to get by the Mavericks first - which, despite Sunday's result, I don't think will be an easy task. Both of these teams have the weapons to advance, but I think Denver's depth and the fact they've got the home court advantage are more important here than in any of the other three series.
PREDICTION: Nuggets in seven.
FAN ANALYSIS (Jones): This should be a very entertaining series with a lot of talent on the floor and some intriguing match-ups. Carmelo Anthony and Dirk Nowitzki have played well of late, but both teams battled against a team with injury issues in round one, so it’s tough to tell how good they really are. I do know though that Dirk has been known to not deliver in big playoff games over the last few years and Dallas has no one to shut down Carmelo. Add in the scoring options Carmelo has and Denver has the edge.
PREDICTION: Nuggets in six.
Let us know what you think.
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